Lai Can Harvest Peace Dividends from Ma-Xi Meeting
United Daily News Editorial, April 2, 2024
Former President Ma Ying-jeou embarked on a journey to mainland China on April 1. According to observers, the main purpose of the trip is to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. If realized, this will be the first meeting between Ma and Xi since the one in Singapore in 2015, with the venue in the mainland which would add extra significance. Compared to Ma's visit to the mainland in March last year, criticism from DPP supporters has been much more restrained this time, with fewer harsh words from government officials. Serious scrutiny has mostly come from the Legislative Yuan, DPP-affiliated sub-groups, DPP-friendly media, and pro-DPP civic organizations, reflecting the subtle changes in the triangular relationship among the United States, China, and Taiwan before the presidential inauguration of William Lai on May 20.
Ma’s itinerary is very clear: It includes visits to Guangdong and Shaanxi provinces, as well as Beijing. Guangdong is the birthplace of the Revolution that led to the founding of the Republic of China, holding great significance for the birth of the R.O.C. On the other hand, Shaanxi boasts the Qiao Mountain Mausoleum of the Yellow Emperor, showcasing the spirit and attitude of the Chinese nation honoring its ancestry. Finally, Beijing is the political center, where through the Ma-Xi meeting, discussions can take place on the wisdom of avoiding war and pursuing peace through the “1992 Consensus.” The common ground linking the three locations is cross-strait student exchanges -- whether visiting Sun Yat-sen University or Peking University, it signifies pinning hopes on the future.
With a De-Risking Consensus, U.S.-China Interactions Undergoing Qualitative Changes
In recent years, U.S.-China relations have experienced ups and downs. The incident of Chinese spy balloons flying over the United States in early 2023 brought relations between Washington and Beijing to a freezing point. It was not until after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China in June that contact began to resume. Executive and legislative branches successively visited China to pave the way for the Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco in November, which finally stabilized the downturn in bilateral ties. Since then, U.S.-China relations have moved toward easing tensions, but core issues of competition remain unresolved. Coupled with the factor of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the fragile relationship between the two sides continues to be unstable and full of variables.
Following the Biden-Xi summit in San Francisco, both sides have engaged in a series of exchanges. The new normal in U.S.-China interactions is to cooperate as much as possible in certain areas while managing differences, under the consensus of not decoupling economically and reducing risks. Last week, when U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell spoke with Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, Campbell emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and Korean peninsula. This was Campbell's first conversation with high-level officials of the Chinese foreign ministry officials since taking office as the hawkish American stance towards China.
DPP Administration Has Not Relentlessly Attacked Ma
After the framework of U.S.-China interactions quietly underwent a qualitative change, if Taipei still maintains its original anti-China stance, it may end up being stuck at the forefront of U.S.-China confrontation, becoming a "troublemaker" between the two powers. Incoming President Lai would certainly not want to see this. Therefore, there is a need for a fresh approach. This may be the factor behind the DPP administration’s lack of relentless attacks on Ma’s visit to the mainland.
Since President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, cross-strait hostility has continued to escalate, especially with the incident of two deaths resulting from the crackdown on "three-no vessels" (vessels that lack three key elements: a registered name and number, vessel certificates, and a registered port of origin) in the maritime areas around Kinmen and Xiamen, which made the situation even more grave. In the short term, there is no possibility of reconciliation seen between the official cross-strait authorities, making private exchanges and communication increasingly important. Ma’s opportune visit could have a positive impact on easing cross-strait tensions.
Using This Lever to Break Out of Cross-Strait Deadlock
On April 1, Ma met with Director Song Tao of the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China’s State Council. Their focus was on peace. Ma stated that cross-strait peace and stability not only benefit both sides but also hold tremendous significance for the entire world. During the eight years from 2008 to 2016, no one in the world ever thought there would be a war across the Taiwan Strait. This is the best manifestation of the functionality of the "1992 Consensus."
Lai could demonstrate more political wisdom and not too hastily interpret Beijing's arranging the meeting between Ma and Xi to pressure Lai's forthcoming inauguration on May 20. Why not utilize the leverage provided by Ma to give the government, which has been loudly anti-China and walked into a cross-strait deadlock, a way out? Lai can also generously reap the peace dividend created by the Ma-Xi meeting. If relations with Beijing can stabilize after the downturn, the new administration will have more room to maneuver on domestic and economic issues.